I've Got Syria On My Mind

Recent reports on Syria have claimed that we may have very well witnessed the turning point in the civil of Syria. On July 18th, General Dawoud Rajiha (Syrian Defense Minister) among other officials of the Ba'ath Party in Syria were assassinated likely by members of their inner circle (bodyguards, etc.) in cooperation with the Free Syrian Army (FSA), though the Islamist Liwa al Islam did also claim responsibility.

With fighting have now spread into Damascus, it seems likely that these reports can be true. And with it we can move closer into examining what the inevitable post-Assad Syria will look like. What tensions will exist? How complex will the power vacumn be? What will happen with the ruling Alawi community? And also what will the situation be like for the Christian community in Syria? For the time, if Syria's Christians have not been neutral, they've sided with the regime. Gen. Rejiha is a Christian. Could this fact create reprisals and be used as a call to violence by extremist Islamists in the present as well as in the post-Assad Syria? I don't entirely know, but I do feel nervous for the minorities of Syria. For now, Arab/Syrian nationalism has remained the catalyst for the revolution. Syria to me is one of the last bastions of this way of thought that up until the 1980s was widespread across much of the Middle East. But could we see an abandonment of this ideology as we've seen with Lebanon and the Palestianin Territories? Radical Islamist thought hasn't seemed to infect the revolution in Syria to much of an extent, but neither had it initially in Egypt until the Salifists had shown up.

While Syria shares more in common with Libya in terms of duration and violence and perhaps even conclusion of hostilities, I have to mention Egypt in this post. Mainly because I do feel like Morsi can be an effective leader IF he sticks by what he has said up to this point. Easing of tension with the Coptic community could go a long way. For years now, Copts have been harassed by both the civilian Muslim community as well as by Egyptian military and police forces (sometimes by direct action and at times by inaction). I haven't honestly heard much about the successes of post-Qadaffi Libya, but thus far Eygpt shows some promise. It may even show that the Arab Spring was a success. I would certainly love to see my initial conclusions on these events proven wrong. But time will answer all of our questions.

But back to the topic of Syria. I do wonder why we haven't seen more high-level defections. We've yet to see many (or rather any) defections from Assad's actual inner circle. But perhaps with the recent bombing and fighting reaching Damascus, we will see such defections. I'd also like to know of what course of action we in the West can actually expect from our governments. Russia seems to be relenting somewhat from their policy so far of support for the Syrian government. But I have no idea if there's been any change in China's policy. Until we can get either support from those two nations in the UN Security Council, I expect much of the same.

With Assad still in power and with much of the military intact and loyal to him, I also have to wonder how desperate he may become to hold on. I remember hearing of reports of Assad moving the stockpiles of chemical weapons to new locations. Could we expect to see deployment of these weapons? The tactics used thus far have been ruthless enough, so I feel if the situation became dire enough we could see them deployed. I do know though, that if that were to happen, we could definitely expect some type of intervention from the West or NATO, if it hasn't already been implemented. Something along the lines of what we saw in Libya by way of no-fly zones and aerial bombings of pro-government facilities and attack launch sites.

Syria has a long road ahead of it until we see the end of this bloody conflict. But I hope that it ends sooner than later. Assad seems determined to remain and with that, we can only expect more attacks on civilians and more deaths. I wish them all the best and steadfastness. Eventually, a free Syria will prevail. So, please, keep running towards that light at the end of the tunnel. And then we can see what type of Syria we will witness grow from the rubble. I hope for a more prosperous, a more just, a more free Syria that can truly transform the Syrian people and perhaps even trasnform the entire Middle East. We have seen several successful revolutions thus far and I know the Syrians are determined to shed the Assad's from power. Keep up the fight.